Scaling Energy to Dizzying Heights and Quaking Depths

The demonization of carbon capture recently moved into new territory as opponents — who hope to kill coal-fired power by squelching carbon capture — worry over the seismic effects of massive underground CO2 injection. This got me to thinking that it’s time to, yet again, consider the virtues of energy conservation.

Fact is, there are risks inherent in every approach to energizing our future (not least sticking with the status quo). The risks look especially daunting if one imagines single-handedly fixing climate change by immediately scaling up any one of the various low-carbon energy technologies available. Take wind power. Install enough wind turbines and they will measurably alter regional airflow patterns and climate (Keith et al, PNAS 2004):

Large-scale use of wind power can alter local and global climate by extracting kinetic energy and altering turbulent transport in the atmospheric boundary layer. We report climate-model simulations that address the possible climatic impacts of wind power at regional to global scales… We find that very large amounts of wind power can produce nonnegligible climatic change at continental scales.

Covering half the Earth with solar panels would undoubtedly deliver its own evils, starting with a sharp increase in power costs that would set back the developing world’s aspirations for economic improvement.

What’s a planet to do? On the generation side I believe we should allow all low-carbon solutions to flourish. We can do this by putting a price on CO2 through taxes or emissions cap-and-trade systems that make it economically punishing to pollute. A price on CO2 would drive coal burning power plants, for example, to invest in pricey carbon capture equipment, increasing the cost of coal-fired electricity — a development that every renewable energy advocate would cheer. (Or one could simply ban new CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, as British Columbia did last year.)

At the same time we must take account of the scale of our energy use. If we can now envision installing enough turbines to alter local weather patterns, or injecting enough CO2 underground to stimulate earthquakes, surely we must recognize that innovative energy supply will not rebalance our relationship with the Earth. We must also learn to live and live well with considerably less energy.  

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Probing St. Valentine’s Bubbles

Champagnes Laherte FrèresCarbon-Nation couldn’t pass up the teach-able moment inherent in Valentine’s Day. Only New Year’s competes with February 14th’s love affair with champagne, and champagne would be unthinkable without carbon dioxide.

Check out my latest connect-the-dots photo montage for MSN Green, “The Troubles in the Bubbles”, to see how champagne is both contributing to – and at the whim of – a changing environment.

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FutureGen Setback Marks a Win for Carbon Capture

Artists rendering of FutureGenThe U.S. Department of Energy has scrapped its support for FutureGen — a public/private partnership that was to build the world’s first carbon-neutral coal-fired power plant. Read the story before you blame coal gasification and carbon capture — the technologies FutureGen was to apply. Rather, DOE has decided that its share of the $1.8 billion FutureGen pricetag is better spent installing carbon capture equipment on commercial coal plants.

Federal funding for carbon capture is needed today because, without the carbon caps or taxes rejected by Washington, there are few instances in which capturing CO2 will pay for itself.

What DOE’s move recognizes is what coal gasification technology providers have been screaming for years: the gasification technology that FutureGen set out to demonstrate is already commercially viable. Your editor quoted one such expert back in 2005 in “Carbon Dioxide for Sale” — a story on carbon capture at the 1970s era Dakota Gasification synthetic fuels plant: “FutureGen is promoting technology that hasn’t even been demonstrated at small pilot plants,” said Dale Simbeck, vice president of technology for SFA Pacific, an energy consultancy based in Mountain View, CA. “But here’s a large-scale operation that’s technically successful and that’s doing all these things that are being talked about.”

Al Lukes, the plant’s chief operating officer, told me he was used to the surprised reactions of international visitors who came to see what was happening in the northern plains: “People look at us and say, ‘My God, you can do that?'”

Now even the U.S. Department of Energy seems to know that gasification and carbon capture exist.

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Straight Talk on Earth-Watching from IPCC Pioneer Jerry Mahlman

As an energy writer I am often frustrated that the low hanging fruit of energy innovations — such as carbon capture and storage — are not being seized, or at least not at the pace that the science suggests is needed to avert major climate impacts in my lifetime. Despite the seeming flood of climate science being reported by the media these days, climate scientists feel a similar frustration that they are not being given the tools they need to really flesh out the climate picture and nail down the myriad uncertainties in climate models. I ran smack into this frustration interviewing Jerry Mahlman, a senior climatologist who created one of the first global climate models and helped to bring the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to life.

In my Q&A with Mahlman, which ran today on Earthzine, he decried the sorry state of the Earth observing systems needed to track climate change. As Mahlman, a climate modeler, puts it, “The world must think that we climate modelers are essentially infallible simply because nobody seems to be interested in checking us out by looking at an appropriate and proper dataset. We don’t think of ourselves as infallible but what we’re getting is NASA and NOAA providing pretty seriously inept observational systems.”

The National Academy of Sciences agrees with Mahlman. The scientific body, usually circumspect in its advice to Congress, issued a report last year warning that the U.S. Earth observation satellite programs are “in disarray.”

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Carbon Capture Deserves Our Support

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) — the idea that CO2 can be collected from smokestacks and stowed away underground — is one of the hottest flashpoints in the politics of climate change. Many environmentalists fought unsuccessfully to strip out CCS incentives from the energy bill signed into law by President Bush this month, arguing that CCS is at best a distraction from a more fundamental shift toward renewable energy sources — if it works at all to keep any CO2 out of the atmosphere. (This may have escaped your notice because the battle over the bill ranged from a historic boost to U.S. fuel efficiency standards –which passed– to a renewable energy mandate stripped out at the last minute.)

I wade into the CCS debate this month in an op-ed for the Earth-observation portal Earthzine arguing that CCS deserves our support. My essay, a response to an Earthzine editorial that knocked CCS, looks back forty years to show that CCS is closer to proven than its critics allow. As for the economics of CCS, I argue that the dirt-cheap cost of coal-fired power provides plenty of room for the extra costs associated with capturing and sequestering CO2.

What is needed for CCS to take off is a way of monetizing the value of carbon capture. The latest energy legislation begins that process, extending tax credits for renewable energy to that produced from coal power plants practising CCS. What’s ultimately needed for both CCS and renewables to become the new normal are energy taxes or carbon trading to put a price on every CO2 molecule released into Earth’s atmosphere.

For another look at how real CCS is today and how nascent carbon markets are suffering out the wait for carbon pricing see “Carbon Capture Moves Ahead”, my story for Technology Review on the efforts of leading U.S. carbon offsets marketer Blue Source to generate and sell carbon credits from CCS projects. The bottom line: It’s a lot harder to innovate when emitting carbon costs $2/ton in the U.S., compared to roughly $30 in Europe.

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IPCC Affirms the Economists: Action Needn’t Terminate Growth

We’ve all read plenty about the IPCC this year as the U.N.-organized scientific body rolled out the tomes that constitute its fourth assessment of climate change research. This weekend the IPCC delivered its summation, and the results are both disturbing and heartening.

Disturbing because it reaffirms that the climate is changing and we are the unwitting drivers. Heartening because its synthesis affirms economic research showing that action against climate change is affordable. The IPCC estimates that aggressive action to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would, at worst, slim annual global GDP growth by 0.12%.

For a sharp précis of the report, Carbon-Nation recommends you to Joseph Romm on Climate Progress: “Absolute must-read report: IPCC says debate over, further delay fatal, action not costly”

Earthzine: Widening the scope

Time to introduce to another web portal launched this month, this one called Earthzine. It’s a webzine created by dedicated volunteers involved in Earth observation offering fresh perspective on the state of the planet. Fostering Earth observation & global awareness

My contribution to the launch is an interview with Rob Adam, who emerged from political incarceration during Apartheid to help lead South Africa’s scientific and technological renaissance. I spoke to Adam primarily about his role in GEO, an international collaboration to foster global sharing of oceanic, terrestrial and satellite-based Earth observations. Among other things, GEO could be a critical step towards better modeling of climate change.

Adam made two noteworthy observations on the energy challenge. One was the fact that coal has lost some of its shine even in South Africa, which needs energy to meet its development goals. Some of the many new coal-fired power projects in the offing there are being converted to nuclear projects (which he oversees as CEO of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation). Adam explains that South Africa wants to pull its weight in the fight against climate change, but also that its leadership recognized that at some point in the future even this developing nation would have to pay the full price of coal — including its environmental costs. The net result, says Adam, is “a profound effect on the thinking on energy production and energy generation in South Africa.”

More profound to me was another comment by Adam, this time on the value of better modeling of weather and climate for renewable energy. Why? Because most renewable energy, as he points out, depends on the weather. How do you project where to put a wind farm or how much energy a solar park will produce if historic patterns of wind flow and cloud cover no longer hold? “The biggest challenge for renewables,” says Adam, “is climate change.”

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